5 months since coronavirus officially arrived in Serbia: Will we welcome day with 0 cases, and when

Illustration: Nikola Jovanovic; Photo: Shutterstock

614 lives lost, 27,033 people infected with coronavirus. 713,104 tested. One wave with two peaks, 22 weeks of the epidemic and exactly five months of fighting COVID-19. Today marks five months since the first case of coronavirus was officially confirmed in Serbia on March 6. In two days, we will enter the 22nd week of the epidemic, and the end is not yet in sight.

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Judging by yesterday's statement made by Dr. Predrag Kon, an epidemiologist and a member of the Crisis HQ for the fight against coronavirus, the question is whether and when we will welcome the day with zero infected people.

"Assessments when it comes to this disease have proven to be quite difficult. These measures, which give a stable decline, seem to be much better in the long run, but we cannot claim that either. It all depends on how we behave. The only obligation is to wear masks and not to gather more than 10 people. And that is not a small ban. Further tightening of these measures would not be useful.

We will get out of that situation, whether in 3 weeks, or in 6, but we will get out. But whether we will bring it down to zero is a big question and I am quite skeptical. I am also skeptical about returning completely to normal before we have not only a vaccine, but also a way to increase collective immunity. The return of children to school is absolutely the biggest event and priority related to this situation," said Dr. Kon, when asked by journalists whether the statement of President Aleksandar Vucic made on July 12 that we would get out of this situation in 20 days had been premature.

That zero was supposed to happen between July 9 and 10, as stated by Minister of Health Zlatibor Loncar, referring to a calculation by epidemiologists from the Medical Faculty in Belgrade.

On that occasion, the minister stressed that it depends on the behavior of the citizens and adherence to the recommended measures.

Also, the epidemic was supposed to last 12 weeks in the worst case scenario, and we were supposed to start coming out of it at the end of the eighth.

On April 21, epidemiologist Predrag Kon, based on the epidemiological situation at the time, said that the end of the epidemic can be expected between the 10th and 12th week, and that it will be possible to say that we are approaching the end when we come out of the eighth week.

"From the tenth to the 12th week, it can be expected that there will be no epidemic, but it is less and less probable that the virus will disappear and its presence will be monitored during the summer, during the warmer days, but there will be no epidemic," Kon told RTS.

However, in June, the curve started to climb again, so another peak happened to us.

We are waiting to exit it and the first wave with an emergency situation declared in more than 37 municipalities, and with almost all healthcare institutions turned into Covid hospitals.

What is encouraging are statements coming from medical professionals that there are currently more discharges from hospitals than admissions, as well as that there are fewer and fewer people who report to Covid clinics with symptoms of coronavirus.

At the same time, the hope that coronavirus is fading is instilled by data coming from the municipalities about the number of new patients, among which the single-digit ones are encouraging - instead of the previous double or even triple-digit numbers.

(LJ.R.- lj.racic@telegraf.rs)