Gloomy projections to catch up with Serbia in just 20 years: One in four people will be over 65

Foto: Shutterstock

The scene in which an elderly man gets on a bus and has no one to give him his seat, because everyone else is of a similar age, is nowadays only occasionally seen in the city transport. However, as soon as in 20 years, this scene will become our reality.

According to population projections compiled by the Statistical Office, there will be about a million fewer citizens in 2041, and one in four will be more than 65 years old.

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Namely, the projection states that in 20 years the share of persons over 65 years old would increase by 8 percent, so that one in four inhabitants of Serbia (25.2 percent) would be more than 65 years old. At the same time, the number of children would drop dramatically.

"The share of people under 15 in the total population would decrease from 14.4 percent to 11.7 percent. This means that an intense process of demographic aging would take place. At the same time, the median age would increase by 4.4 years (from 42.1 to 46.5)," the projection states.

Men will live 79.5 years on average, women even longer

Photo: E-stock.us/Ljuba Becic

An increase in the elderly population and a lack of children would be the least noticeable in Belgrade, while the most intense aging process is expected in the region of Southern and Eastern Serbia. Here the median age would be 48.1 years. With 43.1 as its median age, Serbia is already among the three European countries with the oldest population.

However, if something can make us happy, it is the increase of the median life expectancy in Serbia. In 20 years we will finally reach life expectancy that is already average in developed countries.

"At the end of 2041, the longest life expectancy is expected in the region of Sumadija and Western Serbia, 79.5 years for men and 84 years for women. However, it should be noted that the 'target' life expectancy is already a reality in several of the most developed countries in the world," said the Statistical Office.

The market will cry out for workers

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It's also interesting that in two decades, there will be a shortage of workers. A large number of young, working-age people will emigrate abroad. And when we consider that most of the population will be old, it is obvious that we will have to import workers. That is, as the projection states, we will become an immigration area.

The shortage of workers is noticeable already, so in a few years we might be in a situation where there are no salesmen, drivers, packers, workers in the hospitality and catering industry.

The young and middle-aged, who make up most of the workforce, are leaving the country in great numbers - between 26,000 and 37,000 people a year. With accelerated aging, paradoxically, our job market will be crying out for workers.

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(M.L.)