Deceptive coronavirus Mondays: Why is epidemiological situation "the best" on first day of the week?

Photo: Tanjug/AP

At 3 pm on Monday, we were all delighted by the number of only 57 new coronavirus cases. This was a double-digit number for the first time in 62 days, the last time being June 22 - however, yesterday, Tuesday, that number doubled - the virus had been confirmed in the previous 24 hours in 106 people. And the latest report today says that in the last 24 hours, Covid 19 was confirmed in 154 people.

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What is this about? This, in fact, is not the first time we have had such oscillations. Since the beginning of the coronavirus epidemic in Serbia, we have had double the number of cases, compared with the previous day, four times. But, what has been noticed is that the epidemiological situation is "the best" on Mondays. One could say, deceptively better, because in most cases we had a smaller number of people confirmed to have the virus on Mondays.

We had a double jump for the first time on Tuesday, March 31, when the virus was confirmed in 115 people in 24 hours, while the day before, on Monday, the number was 44. It happened next on Friday, April 3 (305) while the day before it was 111. And we had more than a double jump on Wednesday, May 20 (100), while the day before it was 34. The fourth time was yesterday.

When we look at Mondays, at least in the previous two months, the numbers were the best on those days. For example, on Sunday, August 16, we had 211, the next day on Monday 100, and as soon as Tuesday, August 18, 108. Also, on Sunday, August 9 we had 236 new cases, on Monday, August 10 - 163, an on Tuesday, August 11 - 235.

The same happened on the first week of August. On Sunday, August 2, we had 311, on Monday, August 3, 258, and the next day on Tuesday, 287.

The last two Mondays in July are an exception, since there were more confirmed cases than on Tuesdays, but the previous ones prove the rule. Namely, on Sunday, July 12, there were 287 new cases, on Monday, July 13 - 279, and on Tuesday, July 14 - 344. The same happened on Monday, July 6 - 289, the day before there were 302, and a day later, on Tuesday, July 7, 299...

To be fair, the current epidemiological situation is good, it is no longer an emergency, as the professionals say, and the weekend is to blame for such oscillations happening at the beginning of the week when it comes to the number of new confirmed cases.

Dr. Predrag Kon, an epidemiologist and member of the Crisis HQ for the fight against coronavirus, explains why.

"During the weekend, citizens report less to the Covid clinics," Dr. Predrag Kon told Telegraf.rs.

Therefore, on Mondays, we have a smaller number of new cases in the reports of the Ministry of Health and the Institute of Public Health Batut, that provide the latest cross-sections of the situation.

Photo: Tanjug/Serbian government/Slobodan Miljevic

Professor Dr. Darija Kisic Tepavcevic, Deputy Director of the Batut Institute and an epidemiologist, says the same. She explains for Telegraf.rs that her colleagues and she herself noticed that.

"We have noticed this regularity in previous weeks as well. People see the doctor less on weekends, postpone the visit, which is not recommended in any case, if the person has symptoms that indicate the possible presence of this virus. They should see the doctor as soon as possible. But, yes, we have noticed that rule, that on Mondays we have the lowest number of reported new cases," Dr. Kisic Tepavcevic told Telegraf.rs.

She recalled that we have Covid clinics that are open 24 hours a day.

"In that regard, citizens should not delay seeing the doctor if they truly have symptoms, just as they should not see one for no reason and burden the system," she said.

In Serbia, according to the latest data, the virus has been confirmed in 154 people in the previous 24 hours, while two more patients have died. So far, coronavirus has taken 707 lives in our country, while 30,974 people have contracted the infection.

(Telegraf.rs)