Dr. Kon's worrying forecast: Number of daily deaths will rise, it may go into three digits

Photo: Tanjug/Slobodan Miljevic

The Crisis HQ for the suppression of the coronavirus epidemic will hold a meeting today starting at 1 pm, to have more discussion about the work of schools, but also the measures that have been proposed but postponed.

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Epidemiologist Dr. Predrag Kon spoke for Prva TV about what will be discussed at today's meeting.

At the beginning of the conversation he commented on the potential closure of schools.

"First of all, it should be said that the meeting was scheduled due to the epidemiological situation and in order to continue with what the medical part of the Crisis HQ proposed in writing on November 20, in fact for the first time on November 6. We are not talking about shutting down schools, but about only a week of transition to online classes, nothing else. There is an impression that a big decision is expected, but it's not about that," said Kon and continued:

"As for the winter break, we should continue to talk about it. We are approaching a general understanding of why it should start a little earlier, and that is so as to avoid the flu and Covid being active at the same time because, the flu is yet to arrive," Kon explained.

However, schools are not the only topic of today's meeting.

Virus is slowing down in Belgrade

"What we hear through the media and what we know about institutions and capacities, we will see how that will be resolved further. We need to listen to each other directly and see what needs to be done next, then talk about vaccination planning, but there are other activities as well. We should see how these measures are implemented, and make an assessment of the situation, because there is definitely a significant slowdown of the virus in Belgrade," the epidemiologist explains.

To the host's statement that his differs from what immunologist Dr. Srdja Jankovic said yesterday, and that was that the virus is flaring up, Kon said:

"He and I are both right. There is a slowing down in Belgrade, but at the same time it is spilling over to the south of Serbia. These are not the consequences of the measures, this is a natural flow, the consequences of the measures are yet to be seen. It was to be expected to see them first in Belgrade. We see that there have been significant results in those countries where very restrictive measures have been introduced," the doctor said.

He also said that the fight against coronavirus is not a competition and that he would not compare our results with the countries in the region, but also said that it is possible that the number of deaths will be growing in Serbia.

Number of new cases; Illustration: Nikola Jovanovic

"It is important to say that the number of deaths will increase. That is mathematically completely clear. At 6,800 new cases (in one day), if you have 1% mortality, that number is 68 deaths, and that will arrive in a couple of weeks. That number can also become a three-digit number. Everything should be done to slow down the activity of this virus as much as possible and in that way ensure that the healthcare system and all of us survive," the doctor concluded.

Number of new deaths; Illustration: Nikola Jovanovic

(Telegraf.rs)