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Kocovic's latest forecast: "It's starting to look like November. The situation is worrying"

The curve has started to move according to the previous model

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Profesor Petar Kočović

Professor Petar Kocovic; Printscreen: Youtube/RTS

Each time coronavirus numbers start to fall, people relax and non-compliance with protective measures becomes more frequent, and very quickly all the previous effort turns out to be for nothing as the number of new cases starts to grow. Professor Petar Kocovic is now warning about such a model, comparing the current epidemiological situation with the one from November, while the graphic presentation is very much so worrying.

Professor Kocovic, an information technology expert who, together with his team, has been forecasting the epidemic trends for months based on the Gaussian curve calculations, has now published a graphical presentation of the daily increase in the number of infected people since November 3, 2020 and compared it with the number of new cases starting February 16.

What is noticeable is that the curves showing the number of infected people are identical, and that after the fall in the number of new cases in October, there was a new increase starting in early November. A similar model has been observed now, where, after a slight decrease in the number of newly infected, we again have more than 2,000 new cases per day, due to non-compliance with epidemiological measures.

What is of particular concern are the figures that followed after November 3, when there were 1,878 new cases of coronavirus. Only two weeks after that, the number of new cases more than doubled, so on November 17, we had 4,994 newly infected people in just 24 hours.

SRBIJA protiv SRBIJE - 3.11.2020 : 16.2.2021

Objavljuje Petar Kocovic u Nedjelja, 21. veljače 2021.

In addition to the graphs comparing these two time periods according to the number of new daily cases, Professor Kocovic also published data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), which represents the number of patients per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days, Kurir writes.

Based on this graph, we can notice that the curve has started to move according to the previous model, and if it continues like this, we can expect an even larger number of new cases each day.

In the previous 24 hours, 10,266 citizens were tested for coronavirus in Serbia, of which 2,518 were were positive, while 16 more patients died.

Video: Vucic: I expect a drastic drop in the number of infected people in March, like in Britain


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