Dr. Petrovic is worried: New wave's peak in August? "We're at a dead end, better control needed"

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The epidemiological curve will definitely constantly go up, and it will depend on where it will be in exactly one month, in mid August, whether the peak of the fourth wave of the epidemic will start before the fall. Chief physician Radmilo Petrovic, an epidemiologist, cannot assess the progression of the increase in the number of new cases, of which there were 145 on Tuesday, and whether we could have several hundred infected people per day by the end of this month. He says that the mathematical model in the field of biology cannot be considered reliable, but he is also sure that we are not in a very favorable situation - both because of the characteristics of the new Delta strain, and because of the delay in the vaccination process.

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That is why Dr. Petrovic, however, is convinced that we will have mass infection again before the fall.

"The Delta (strain) virus is more resistant than the original, a smaller amount is enough to cause infection, and it transmits faster. All this, after decades of experience in epidemiology and virology, tells me that we will not push through the whole summer with, conditionally speaking, a small number of newly infected on a daily basis," Dr. Petrovic told Novosti.

Whichever population it enters, the Delta becomes dominant very quickly, so it is expected that the strain whose presence was confirmed in a lab in Serbia on July 1 will overtake the previously predominant British variant of coronavirus.

"How this fourth epidemic wave will develop depends on the virus itself, which is definitely more virulent and aggressive now, but also on the medium it encounters. It is not the same whether it will encounter a population that is 60-70 percent protected, or the unvaccinated. The air temperature, as we saw last summer, has no direct effect on the virus itself, but if we gather in air-conditioned rooms it will certainly contribute to the spread of the virus."

Already now, with about 100 new cases a day, the epidemiological "snowball" should be prevented from starting to roll, Dr. Petrovic is convinced:

"For a start, better epidemiological control should be introduced at sporting events and among tourists, whether they are foreigners who come here, or locals who return from summer vacations (abroad)," Dr. Petrovic thinks.

"A model must be found to speed up vaccination, because we are at a dead end. When our people don't want to do something, then - they won't do it. I see that in my family as well, my 22-year-old grandson trusts his boss  who is a craftsman that he should not get vaccinated more than me - who have been in epidemiology for more than four decades."

(Telegraf.rs)