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Dr. Kon warns of danger of secret New Year's Eve parties: Out of 100 people, one is contagious


"The smaller the number of people, the less likely they are to be contagious. That is the risk that you cannot avoid in any way, while transmission under those conditions is certain," the epidemiologist pointed out

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Predrag Kon

Photo: Marko Jovanovic

Epidemiologist Dr. Predrag Kon warned today of the danger of gatherings and organizing secret New Year's Eve parties.

"If you have about 100 people, one is probably contagious. The smaller the number of people, the less likely they are to be contagious. It is that risk that you cannot avoid in any way, while the transfer is guaranteed even under those conditions. It can be transferred to five to six people, and in some special circumstances of an enclosed space with mass music, it can be increased to ten," Kon pointed out in comments for RTS.

When this is multiplied by the number of such places, as he indicates, one can see how much of a risk there is.

There were big crowds in the shopping malls, and Kon reminds that they warned about such a risk, but that the decision was what it was.

The state will also prevent daytime parties if epidemiological measures are violated.

"What is important is that they still wear masks, because that way the risk is significantly reduced, almost 100 times. Nevertheless, extremely high density is something that is not allowed. There are 9 square meters per person in shopping malls and in such controlled conditions there should be no such crowds," said Kon.

This member of the Crisis HQ appeals to all those in charge of controlling it.

"We should be optimistic. Vaccines are slowly arriving. I said that at the beginning, it will be in droplets, before the whole process starts. When immunization starts en masse in January, then the number of those who are immune will increase rapidly," says Kon.

He points out that the speed at which protection will be achieved will depend on the organization in the country and the response of citizens, which will prevent the virus from spreading as it is now.

"That should be after the first quarter, but we must understand that vaccination will be throughout the year. It will also be in the fall of next year, because we still don't know how long the protection lasts. What is certain is that it is at least six months, and it is expected to be several years, but we will have to wait and see," he concluded.

Video: Kon believes that there are two turning points: When the first vaccines arrived, and when the first ventilators arrived


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