Millions on hold: When MOL might take over NIS and why the wait - will it take months, or a year?

Collage: Shutterstock

President of Serbia Aleksandar Vucic saying that the Russian share in NIS (Petroleum Industry of Serbia, that is under US sanctions), which is expected to be bought by the Hungarian MOL, is worth between 900 million and 1 billion euros, has reopened one of the most sensitive economic and political topics in Serbia.

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Vucic said that the state of Serbia was ready to pay as much as 2 billion euros, and even more, but that this opportunity was never offered to Serbia. He said that the reasons are clear and understandable to him, but did not want to make them public in order not to jeopardize state interests.

Why didn't Serbia get an offer?

The president stated that it was clear to him that the Russian stake in NIS would not be offered to Serbia even before the current situation arose. This indicated that the decision was not made solely based on the market criteria, but within a broader political and geopolitical context.

Photo: MOL Group/Promo

Although Serbia expressed its willingness to pay significantly more than the estimated value, the decision to sell was made outside of Belgrade, and the potential buyer became the Hungarian MOL, a company based in the European Union.

Why the wait and why there is no quick agreement

The sale of the Russian share in NIS is taking place while Russia is under sanctions which significantly complicates any attempt to change the ownership structure in the energy sector. Without the consent of regulators in Serbia and the European Union, the transaction cannot be completed.

Besides, it is necessary to resolve the issue of legal and financial mechanisms that would enable the transfer of capital without violating sanctions, as well as detailed verification of the origin of money and contractual obligations. All this makes the process long and uncertain, according to experts who made separate comments regarding this situation.

Professor Ljubodrag Savic from the Faculty of Economics in Belgrade stated that "the sale of NIS to MOL is possible by March 24, 2026" and that "MOL knows very well what it is buying and that's not so complicated" - stressing that, although business is often mystified, from the economic point of view the transaction makes sense and can be concluded quickly through appropriate agreements.

Photo: Shutterstock

When could MOL take over NIS

Based on previous experience with similar transactions in the energy sector, it is realistic to expect the process to last for months, and in more complex circumstances, even longer than a year. Only after obtaining all regulatory approvals and closing the financial structure, MOL could formally take over the Russian stake in NIS.

Until then, NIS remains in the uncertainty zone, with the existing ownership structure and limited scope for long-term planning.

Photo:Telegraf.rs/AI illustration

Professor Jan Nowinowski, an analyst from the Center for Eastern Studies, has estimated that "the conclusion of the transaction by which MOL takes over the majority stake in NIS would represent the first case of Russian energy resources in Europe passing to the hands of other companies under pressure of US sanctions", stressing that such a development "reflects how sanctions can reshape the ownership structure of energy firms and reduce direct Russian control over key energy partners".

Vucic has stated that relations between Serbia and Russia are good, but the NIS case shows that political and economic interests do not always align. Although Serbia has the capacity and willingness to take over a strategic part of the company, the final decisions are made in accordance with broader international relations and pressure.

More than a billion euros

The issue of selling NIS is not just a matter of price. It is about control over the energy system, strategic stability and long-term consequences on Serbia's economic and political position. Precisely because of this, the outcome of this story will not have only business, but also historic significance.

(Telegraf Biznis)