Professor Petar Kocovic: Epidemic to end in Serbia in 5 days; For these neighbors, not before 2095

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Every day, Professor Petar Kocovic publishes a general map of Europe, on which he shows when a certain wave of the coronavirus epidemic will end in a particular country. According to his estimates, the end of the epidemic will happen first in Serbia, then in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Montenegro, while some countries will have to wait another year or more.

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He makes predictions about the end of the epidemic by using the so-called Gaussian curve.

"On the general map of Europe that I publish every day - next to each country there is a date. That is the end of a given wave. But, for a couple of countries (in a certain short period of time) such as Turkey, for example, in the previous few days, the Gauss model does not predict an end, so I left in the last change," the professor explains for Telegraf.rs.

According to his estimates, the second wave of the epidemic in Serbia will end on September 13, in BiH on October 9, and in Montenegro on November 5.

On the other hand, Croatia will see the end of the second wave on January 26, 2021, Slovenia on August 13, 2022, and Romania on December 21, 2021.

What is especially worrying is the estimate that the second wave will end only on November 13, 2095 in Hungary and on February 6, 2145 in Turkey. The professor notes that all these dates are approximate.

"In a couple of days, the situation will change, so there will be new dates. In any case - all this is approximate, especially if the dates are far from today, as in the case of Hungary and Turkey," Kocovic explained.

As he pointed out earlier, countries in the region are mostly in the second wave of the pandemic, except for Romania, Bulgaria and North Macedonia, which are still in the first wave.

According to his estimates, Romania will emerge from the first wave on December 21, 2021, Bulgaria - on December 10 this year, and North Macedonia - on December 4.

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"Romania, Bulgaria and North Macedonia are still in the first wave because their population is 'undisciplined' when it comes to the fight against Covid-19," Kocovic pointed out.

He also stressed that the "Holy Trinity" in the fight against Covid-19 is: wearing masks indoors and in crowded outdoor spaces; physical distancing of two meters, and washing hands.

"No hugging and kissing with those we haven't seen in a long time. North Macedonia was supposed to come out of the first wave when we did, but they had Eid al-Fitr and a national holiday. And there you go - two days of carelessness and the number of cases increased," explained the professor.

The situation was similar in Bulgaria, in addition to demonstrations in Sofia, which lasted for two months.

"If I'm not mistaken, there were demonstrations in Bucharest in June and then the first wave was spreading all over the country," he told Telegraf.rs.

Finally, the professor explains why the end of the wave for some countries is predicted to happen in a few decades.

"In Hungary and Turkey, the number of cases is increasing day by day and that is the reason why the date is so far away. But it will soon approach today's date - when the number of cases drops drastically," he concluded at the end of the conversation.

What is the Gaussian curve?

This is a unique mathematical model to monitor the coronavirus pandemic. As Professor Kocovic explained for Telegraf.rs, he uses five models for monitoring the epidemic, but the Gaussian curve is the most well-known one.

"The Gaussian curve only requires data on infected patients at the daily level. I use data published by the Ministry of Health and the Batut Institute of Public Health. This technology calculates quite reliably - I will use the term predicts, the end of a cycle, as well as its peaks... And not only for Serbia, but for all other countries as well," said our interlocutor.

(Telegraf.rs)