National Bank of Serbia (NBS) keeps key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%

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The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) has decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, as well as the deposit (4.5%) and lending facility (7.0%) rates.

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The central bank's Executive Board voted in favor of this decision primarily in view of the actual and expected inflation, as well as factors from the domestic and international environment affecting its movements, the NBS said in a statement.

Y-o-y headline inflation in Serbia slowed significantly in September – to 2.9% and then to 2.8% in October, mostly as a result of the Serbian Government's Decree on Special Conditions for Trade in Certain Types of Goods. As of September, the Decree capped trade margins on food items and certain household cleaning products at 20% for a period of six months, the central bank said.

The Executive Board expects inflation to continue trending around the target midpoint as long as the Decree is in force, and to remain within the target tolerance band of 3±1.5% in the medium term.

This should be facilitated by the announced adoption of systemic laws that will curb unfair merchant practices, as well as by the easing of cost-push pressures from the international environment, the effects of the dollar's weakening against the euro, and the arrival of the new agricultural season, assuming that it turns out better than this year's, while the increase in disposable income and the low base from September this year will act in the opposite direction, according to the NBS statement.

The Executive Board emphasized that the NBS continues to support economic growth through the maintained relative exchange rate stability and the provision of more favourable credit conditions, thanks to the effects of past monetary policy easing, amendments to the Law on the Protection of Financial Service Consumers, and targeted measures aimed at improving borrowing conditions for low-income citizens and young first-time homebuyers.

All these factors together have resulted in a double-digit y-o-y increase in lending activity to both corporates and households, which reached 12.8% in September, the central bank said.

The Executive Board further stressed that a cautious monetary policy stance is still necessary as the situation in the international environment remains complex and unstable.

Higher tariffs, rising protectionism and persistently uncertain global trade policies, together with heightened geopolitical tensions, continue to shape movements in global commodity and financial markets, keeping them volatile.

In addition, geopolitical tensions and growing protectionism may have direct effects on domestic manufacturing output and exports, particularly when it comes to oil and base metals production.

As for monetary policy decisions of leading central banks, the Fed lowered its key interest rates by 25 bp in October, following a similar reduction in September, and further rate cuts are expected in the coming period, primarily to support the labor market.

The ECB, on the other hand, kept its rates unchanged in October, as in the previous month, and its monetary policy easing cycle appears to be nearly complete, the NBS stressed.

According to the Serbian Statistical Office flash estimate, y-o-y GDP growth in Q3 amounted to 2.0% and was driven by the continued increase in automotive industry production and exports, as well as by the services sectors, though to a lesser extent than expected.

The slower pace of growth reflects dampened investment and consumer confidence due to prolonged global uncertainty and socio-political developments in the country, while rising disposable income worked in the opposite direction.

The Executive Board will continue to follow and analyze developments in the domestic and international markets and make monetary policy decisions on a meeting-to-meeting basis depending on the incoming data, the outlook for inflation and its key factors, and the assessment of the effects of adopted monetary policy measures.

At same time, the Board will remain mindful of the preservation of financial stability and a favourable growth outlook, the NBS said.

At Thursday's meeting, the Executive Board adopted the November Inflation Report with the latest macroeconomic projections that will be presented to the public in more detail at the press conference on 19 November, along with additional explanations of monetary policy decisions.

The next rate-setting meeting where economic developments will be considered is scheduled for 11 December, the National Bank of Serbia concluded.

(Telegraf.rs/Tanjug)