Peak moves to October, new daily Covid cases could reach 10,500: Professor Kocovic's calculations

Photo: Tanjug/Dragan Kujundzic

Due to the spike in the number of infected people in the past few days, according to mathematical calculations done by computer science Professor Petar Kocovic, the peak of the fourth coronavirus wave in Serbia has shifted. At the same time, he told Telegraf.rs, the expected number of infected people in the peak has increased.

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As he told us, the mathematical model with which he accurately predicted the peak of the 3rd wave in 2020, stating that we can expect 8,000 cases a day, suggests that this peak has moved from September 20 to October 15.

"In the meantime, the peak moved to October 15, due to the sharp spike in the previous six or seven days. As soon as the number of infected people increases sharply, the peak and the end of the wave move. The number of people infected at the peak could now be between 7,400 and 10,500 (a day)," he told us, stressing that the exact number depends on whether one considers the optimistic or the pessimistic scenario.

Previously, on August 31, he told us that there would be 5,500 to 8,500 infected people at the peak, and that that and following week was crucial, i.e., the period until September 11.

"These days, we are recording a large number of infected people, but from the 63rd to the 70th day in the third wave, we also had record numnbers and a large number of deaths," he said, adding that this data has changed in the meantime.

Until last Friday, he said, the number of the dead and infected was higher in the fourth wave. Now it's the other way around.

"On the 70th day of the fourth wave, there were 421 deaths, and in the third wave, in the same number of days, there are 456. Now there are slightly fewer deaths, 35 less," he pointed out the good news, adding that there is also a difference of about 5,000 infected people in the said period of time, which is how many more there were in the third wave than in the current, fourth.