What's behind US OFAC's ultimatum over NIS and what are the scenarios for Serbia after July 1?

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Economist Veljko Mijuskovic said today that the deadline of July 1 given by the US Treasury Department's OFAC for Gazprom Neft and MOL to agree on the sale of the Russian share in Petroleum Industry of Serbia, NIS, indicates that the agreement is being finalized and that the model of the future solution is known, as well as that the conditions under which it will be implemented are still being negotiated.

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"Things shouldn't be forced, especially if there are some elements that have not yet been fully defined, in order for the situation to be fully resolved. The good thing is that the Serbian side did everything it could, it negotiated everything it needed to with MOL, and, provided that's implemented, we are ready, all that's left is to wait," he told Tanjug.

Asked what the contract on the management of NIS, which was signed between the Government of Serbia and MOL, means for the state and what kind of guarantees it brings when Budapest and Moscow reach their agreement, Mijuskovic said that the contract primarily protects Serbian national interests and gives a guarantee that the Pancevo refinery will continue to operate for the next 10 years, which he noted is very important for the state.

Mijuskovic pointed out that Serbia buying more shares in NIS was also agreed upon, which will enable the country to "to some degree prevent any unwanted decisions that could be made in relation to the change of activity, alienation of part of the property and the like."

Asked how much the signing of the agreement between the Government of Serbia and MOL changes the balance of power in the negotiations and puts additional pressure on Gazprom Neft to make a final decision, Mijuskovic stated that the agreement does not change much in the negotiations between Gazprom Neft and MOL, bearing in mind that the relationship between the Russians and the Hungarians is key in these negotiations.

According to him, it is up to us to wait for all partners to act in a fair manner and for the efforts that have been invested in the previous period to come to fruition.

Asked what the key steps that would have to be taken by July 1 are, in order to avoid more uncertainty regarding the operation of NIS, Mijuskovic replied that by then there should be a final draft of the agreement, and progress made towards concluding it, so that the US side can be sure that time had not been wasted.

"I believe that all this time, the US has been receiving some guarantees, regarding how far the (negotiations) have progressed, which is why they gave extensions. It remains to be seen whether an agreement will be reached by July 1 or whether the deadline will be extended again. I hope this issue will be resolved. With that, we will not have fully resolved the issue of our energy situation, further diversification of supply sources and routes is ahead of us, so that we can talk about a more permanent solution to this issue," he stated.

Mijuskovic stressed that after the current license expires, the most stable long-term solution for NIS and Serbia is for an agreement to be reached and for the situation to be resolved, or for Serbia to be the one to take over the company.

(Telegraf Biznis/Tanjug)