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The tendency of price drop of crude oil began in 2014 with the minus of 9%, only for it to drop in 2015 to 47%. Taking in consideration that Serbia is dependent from oil import, that fall reflected the prices of petrol within our borders. For the past months the price of "black gold" has been growing, and since January 88%, and because of that, the further increase wont go around us, even tho the fierce competition (network of around 1.400 gas stations) the price of petrol will never be able to be very high.
- Essentially, its price began falling in September 2014, first of all because of overpriced estimate of global growth, which resulted in much lesser demand for oil. Secondly, the big traditional oil producers (Iraq, Libya) started exporting in large numbers, and thirdly, certain countries such as America and Canada started using oil from oil shale, which lead to huge increase in producing oil. That oil over flooded the global market and great amount, and small demand affected the price drop - explains assistant professor Dr Goran Radosavljevic from the Economics and Finance College.
That big drop reflected the price fall of the derivatives. In Jun 2015, when the price of crude oil was 64.2$ per barrel, the average retail price of petrol was 144.6 dinars for 1 liter, and diesel 149.30. Following the price of crude oil, petrol droped for 21.3 dinars and achieved at the start of March the lowest level of 123.29 dinars for liter, while diesel reached 125.11 dinars for liter, cheaper for 24.20 dinars.
The price of oil in the past few months has usual osculations on the daily basis with the price growth trend. Since 27.88 $ for a barrel that was the price on 20th January, its price rose to 52.50$ for the barrel on 8th Jun. which represents an increase of 88%. The price jump in the international market of oil, considering the high import addiction of Serbia, it has inevitably contributed to the price rice of retail prices in our country, claims general secretary of Oil Companies of Serbia Tomislav Micovic.
- The price of petrol did not start increasing on that 20th January, when the price of crude oil began to rise, it actually continued to fall for a month and a half, to the beginning of March. Since then the average price of petrol in Serbia has been increased for 9.39 dinars or 7.62%, while diesel went up for 12 dinars or 9.6% - said Micovic.
Considering that the similar prices were noted in the countries in the vicinity, when compared, the price is Serbia is still under the regional average, as well as the price of TNG auto gas, while the average price for diesel is among highest.
- This status of average price of diesel fuel on Serbian market has been set after repeated growth of excises (taxes) in the past few years, which makes the part of the state share equal to the real oil price. According to the current prices of petrol and diesel, the excise share, reimbursement for forming mandatory reserves and the added value is around 58%, and in the total amount, around 80 dinars per liter. Excise (50din/L for petrol and 54din/L for diesel) and the reimbursement for mandatory reserves (2.6din/L) do not depend of the prices of crude oil, while the absolute price of added value is slightly higher that with higher oil prices, and proportionally less with lower oil prices - mentions Micovic and adds:
- To get the crude oil from the manufacturer for free, you have to take in consideration the tanker transport of oil to Krka in Adriatic sea, then transport to oil pipeline in Pancevo, then complex and expensive refine processing, then storage and distribution, and at the end and in the end the charged high state share, the price of fuel would still be over 100 dinars per liter.
According to some estimates, the price of oil could go over 50 dollars per barrel, and eventually, even 70 dollars. Some experts say, the current price growth of crude oil will certainly effect the price of derivatives, but not immediately.
- If the price of oil continues to fall, like it did in the past few days, that will affect the price of derivatives in the opposite way. However, while the state share is still very high, the decline of oil price will not reflect the price of derivatives - concludes Radosavljevic.
(Sladjana Vasic / Telegraf.co.uk)